Independent
Every promise, and the record that day
Eleven statements from Washington, in the speakers' exact words. As you scroll, the charts move to each date and show what was measured that day: ships through Hormuz, the price of oil, gasoline, and support for the war.
The fight over one waterway
About a fifth of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Ship-tracking data shows what happened to that traffic, phase by phase. Tap a marker for the event.
Two chokepoints
Hormuz carries Gulf exports out. Bab el-Mandeb, off Yemen, is the second front the Houthis opened in September.
Ships per day, before and now
Each dot is one ship crossing per day, from IMF PortWatch's ship-tracking (AIS) data.
AIS data can miss ships that switch off their transponders and, possibly, escorted transits.
Five ways to count the strait
Washington says the strait is open. Tehran says it controls it. Both can cite numbers, because they are measuring different things.
What it costs to fill up
Oil prices tracked the war's phases. Gasoline followed.
Brent crude, physical spot
EIA's physical spot price runs about $20 above the futures price in most headlines: futures passed $105 on Oct 8, per CBS. EIA forecasts Brent near $105 in the fourth quarter.
US regular gasoline, weekly
National average, dollars per gallon. Peak: $4.50 the week of May 11. Source: EIA.
Dollars, and lives
Every figure below is an estimate from the named counter. Counts disagree, and the page shows the disagreement rather than picking a side.
The Pentagon's bill
Each estimate as reported, in billions of dollars. None includes repairs to damaged bases.
Still to come
- Supplemental funding the Pentagon has requested
- $67.1B
- Ongoing cost, Congressional Budget Office estimate
- $2–3B / month
- US aircraft lost or damaged (CRS report, as summarized by JINSA)
- 81
Support never took hold
Every published poll on the war since it began, and every war-powers vote in Congress.
Support and opposition, by poll
Each dot is one poll. Lines are TMI's 30-day rolling mean of the published results, not Silver Bulletin's adjusted average, which hit 32% support on Oct 5, its lowest. Poll list compiled by Silver Bulletin; each poll links to its original.
War-powers votes
The June resolution passed both chambers. The administration treats it as non-binding.
Fourteen points, and what became of them
Trump and Iran's president signed the Islamabad memorandum on June 17. It collapsed three weeks later. Each point below is quoted from the American Presidency Project's copy, which is marked "draft." Where no source documents what happened, we say so.
How we got here
From the June 2025 strikes to this week. Filter by where the decision was made.
What the record can't settle yet
The questions where credible sources disagree, and what would settle each one.
How we built this
Method
Every statement on this page traces to a named, linked source we read in full. Quotes are verbatim. The numbers beside each statement are computed directly from the datasets on the date it was made.
Reuters and AP copy appears only where a readable outlet republished it, and the republisher is named. Casualty and cost figures are attributed estimates, never stated as fact.
Data
Ship crossings: IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data (AIS-based), through Oct 4. Oil: EIA Europe Brent spot, through Oct 6. Gasoline: EIA weekly US regular, through Oct 5. Polls: list compiled by Silver Bulletin, through Oct 5.
This report covers decisions, diplomacy, costs and published data. TMI does not publish tactical or weapons detail. Map: Natural Earth; places © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).