Independent
The price doubled
Crude oil spot prices, dollars a barrel
At the pump: US average retail prices, dollars a gallon
Where the oil went
The strait went quiet
In 2025 about 48 tankers a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Ship-tracking data show about one a day in September. Gulf producers moved crude by pipeline around the strait instead: Kpler, a shipping tracker, says about 40% of the region's crude now bypasses Hormuz, against about 17% before the war.
Ships through each chokepoint per day, 7-day average
IMF PortWatch counts ships by their transponders, which can miss vessels running dark or under escort. Other counts are much higher: Lloyd's List counted at least 477 non-Iranian transits of Hormuz in September, and industry executives told Bloomberg shipments were about 80% of pre-war. The Bosporus decline is mostly in September; the data do not show why.
Many fronts, one market
Each conflict hit a different part of the supply chain: Gulf crude, the Red Sea shipping lane, Russia's refineries and Venezuela's slow recovery.
Where the wars meet
With US diesel near a record, Trump announced on Oct 9 that Russia would supply diesel "to the American and Global Marketplace," and Treasury lifted US sanctions on it the same day. No buyer, contract or price has been disclosed.
What is known
The law
Will it lower prices?
Reactions
Then, an "energy ceasefire"
Emptying the reserves
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, millions of barrels
Weekly. The 2026 drawdown is through exchanges, which companies repay with extra barrels later, not sales.
Costs and windfalls
Fuel buyers and oil-importing countries pay the war premium. Producers and refiners outside the war zone have booked large profits.
Who pays
Who gains
How we got here
From October 2025 to this week. Filter by front.
What the record can't settle yet
Where credible sources disagree, and what would settle each question.
How we built this
Method
Prices, production and reserve levels come from the US Energy Information Administration; shipping from IMF PortWatch; European pump prices from the European Commission. All were downloaded Oct 12, 2026 and are shown as published. EIA's production figures after May 2026 are estimates and are labeled that way.
Statements by governments, the IEA and OPEC, and reporting by news outlets and industry trackers are labeled separately. Where they disagree, the page shows both.
What we leave out
No trading or investment advice and no TMI forecasts; forecasts shown are their authors'. No weapons or targeting detail. Places are shown at city level.
Map: Natural Earth; places © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL). Shipping: UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch.