The Paper and the Ground

Both sides hitting energy, every few days

Trump had asked Kyiv to stop striking Russian refineries on September 13, publicly, and again on a September 20 call. The strikes continued: Volgograd on Oct 2, an oil-storage site in Moscow Oblast on Oct 5, the Salavat, Omsk and Ukhta refineries on Oct 8, a Rostov oil terminal on Oct 10.

Russia hit Poltava Oblast’s grid twice in the first week and, on Oct 6, launched one of the largest attacks of the war on Ukraine’s energy system: 48 cruise missiles and 130 drones by the Air Force’s count, at least 30 people killed.

“Do not break it!”

Zelensky said the post was the first he had heard of it and that Ukraine would stop if Russia stopped. The Kremlin said only that “contacts are ongoing.” That night Russia struck Kharkiv’s CHP-5 power plant. The governor reported five killed and 42 injured across the oblast.

Ukraine stopped. Russia didn’t.

For three days Ukraine launched no strikes on Russian oil or energy. ISW recorded none on Oct 11–12; Zelensky said on Oct 12, “Last night, we did not attack any energy facilities on Russia.”

Russia hit six energy facilities on Oct 12 and, overnight into Oct 13, all three of Kyiv’s combined heat-and-power plants. Zelensky put the outage at “at least 600,000 people.” On Oct 14 Russia launched 580 drones in a night, 360 of them at Kirovohrad Oblast.

“The block is out. We’re done.”

Overnight into Oct 15 Ukrainian drones hit the Ryazan refinery. The governor confirmed a fire; Russia’s defense ministry called it “a large-scale attack”; Reuters’ industry sources say a crude unit was halted. Zelensky told the Financial Times the pause had been made at Washington’s request and had lasted three days.

TMI’s Oct 15 brief said Ukraine had paused “three weeks” earlier. The record supports a pause of three days, from Oct 11–12 to Oct 15. That brief was wrong.

“A specific list of targets has been drawn up”

Putin called the strikes a response to Kyiv’s attacks on Russian fuel and energy sites. That night Russia hit more than 15 power generation and transmission facilities across the country; seven people were killed and about 90 injured. Regional officials counted hundreds of thousands without power in Volyn and Kharkiv oblasts.