Independent
Flights fell by half
Taiwan's defense ministry counts every Chinese military aircraft it detects around the island.
PLA aircraft sorties around Taiwan, by month
Taiwan Security Monitor (George Mason University) monthly totals from Taiwan defense ministry data. September 2026 is TMI's compilation of the ministry's daily reports. 2025 figures through July.
Biggest single days
There has been no large named PLA exercise around Taiwan in 2026. The last, Justice Mission-2025, ran Dec 29–30.
108 days of reports
Every daily report from Taiwan's defense ministry since June 23. Bars are aircraft; the line is PLA Navy ships; dots are Chinese government ships. Tap a day to open the ministry's report.
The pressure moved to the water
While the jets thinned out, PLA Navy ships held at about seven a day all year, and China's coast guard pushed into waters Taiwan controls. Taiwan Security Monitor's reading in March: "no meaningful de-escalation overall."
PLA Navy ships around Taiwan, daily average by month, 2026
Where the coast guard pushed
Shipping hasn't flinched
For all the pressure, commercial traffic through the Taiwan Strait is essentially unchanged.
Ships through the Taiwan Strait per day, 7-day average
IMF PortWatch, from ship-tracking (AIS) data, through Oct 4, 2026. TSMC, based in Taiwan, took of global foundry revenue in the second quarter of 2026 (TrendForce).
Summits, and a stalled pipeline
Beijing put Taiwan at the center of both Trump–Xi summits. Washington paused a $14 billion arms package. Taipei's legislature passed less of the special arms budget than the government asked for.
Has deterrence weakened?
What the models say
These are modeled findings, not predictions, each with its own assumptions. They are shown at the level their authors published.
How we got here
From 1949 to this week. Filter by who acted.
What the record can't settle yet
Where credible sources disagree, and what would settle each question.
How we built this
Method
Every statement traces to a named, linked source we read in full; quotes are verbatim. Official counts from Taipei, statements from Beijing and Washington, and independent analysis are labeled separately. Modeled scenarios are labeled as models.
The daily series is TMI's compilation of 108 reports from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. Its July total matches Taiwan Security Monitor's, and its September count of median-line crossings and ADIZ entries matches AEI/ISW's.
Data
Aircraft and ships: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense daily reports; Taiwan Security Monitor monthly snapshots. Shipping: IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data. Different trackers count different things: all sorties, ADIZ entries, or median-line crossings. Each chart says which.
This report covers activity counts, statements, budgets and published models. TMI does not publish tactical or weapons detail. Map: Natural Earth; places © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).