Independents were the water in the blue wave, and the water level is rising. In episode 668, Paul Rieckhoff rips through the midterm results with a combat helmet on and no illusions about what just happened. Yes, Democrats won big. No, America doesn’t suddenly love Chuck Schumer or Hakeem Jeffries. What the data actually shows — pulled from CNN exit polling and Jeremy Gruber’s analysis at Open Primaries — is that independent voters broke decisively for the candidates who sent a message: Trump is getting rich and you’re getting screwed. In Texas, Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa — independents weren’t a marginal factor. They changed the map.
Paul also walks through every independent veteran Senate race: Todd Achilles in Idaho, Brian Bengs in South Dakota, Dan Osborn in Nebraska, Seth Bodnar in Montana, Bob Chew in Colorado, and Ty Pinkins’ still-too-close race in Mississippi. The money gap is the story — Osborn got outspent by a billionaire’s son, Bodnar faced a Democrat spoiler who wouldn’t drop out. But below the radar, four IVA-endorsed independent veterans did win, including a second straight independent mayor in Ridgecrest, California. Add 79 veterans heading to Congress with a record 11 women veterans, Tom Tillis coming for Hegseth, Carney shutting Russia out of junior hockey, and J.D. Vance already blaming Trump for the wipeout — and you’ve got a wake-up call for both parties. The question isn’t whether independents matter anymore. It’s whether the system catches up.
In this episode
- Why America didn’t suddenly fall in love with Democrats — they just really, really hate Trump
- Jeremy Gruber’s data: independents broke 63% for Talarico in Texas, 64% for Hamilton in Kansas, 65% for Sand in Iowa
- Todd Achilles in Idaho — the tightest independent veteran campaign of the cycle and a possible model
- Dan Osborn vs. Pete Ricketts: a $55M-plus race, a billionaire’s son, and what the money gap really looks like
- Seth Bodnar in Montana, the Democrat spoiler who refused to drop out, and the Republican brand problem
- Four IVA-endorsed independent veterans who actually won — including a second straight independent mayor in Ridgecrest, California
- 79 veterans heading to Congress with a record 11 women veterans — the camouflage wave nobody’s covering
- Tom Tillis signaling a reckoning for Pete Hegseth, and why Trump may move fast before losing his Senate cover
- Mark Carney tells Russia: no junior hockey while you bomb Ukrainian cities
- J.D. Vance already blaming Trump for the loss — the 2028 presidential race starts now
