There were two electorates in this election. The second is the one that voted on Tuesday. The first is the one that picked the names on that ballot: the people who voted in the primaries last spring and summer. TMI, our morning newsletter, put the two side by side, state by state, using the national voter file. Paul Rieckhoff walks through what it shows.
In the 28 states that register voters by party, 30% of registered voters belong to no party. They cast 16% of this year’s primary ballots. In the 13 closed-primary states, 4% of them took part, against 25% of Democrats and Republicans. New Jersey: 35% of the rolls, 1% of the primary ballots. Maine and New Mexico opened their primaries since 2022, and no-party voters showed up. In 2024, 366 of 435 House seats were settled before November. And in Nebraska, South Dakota and Idaho, the Senate margin was a fraction of the independents who never had a primary to vote in.
Sources: L2 voter file via VoterCount (retrieved Oct 29 and Nov 4, 2026), state election offices and registration reports, AP race calls as logged by the IVA Election Desk, MIT Election Data and Science Lab 2024 House returns. Margins are unofficial, partial counts as of Nov 4 and change until the states certify.
In this episode
- Who picked the ballot — In the 28 states that register voters by party, 30% of registered voters belong to no party. They cast 16% of this year’s primary ballots.
- Where the door is shut — In the 13 closed-primary states, 4% of no-party voters took part, against 25% of Democrats and Republicans. New Jersey: 35% of the rolls, 1% of the primary ballots.
- 366 of 435 House seats — In 2024, 366 of 435 House seats were settled before November.
- Tuesday’s margins — In Nebraska, South Dakota and Idaho, the Senate margin was a fraction of the independents who never had a primary to vote in.
- Open the door and they come — Maine and New Mexico opened their primaries since 2022, and no-party voters showed up.
Read the full special report, with a source behind every number: independentamericans.us/tmi/electorate. Sign up for TMI, free every weekday morning: independentamericans.us/tmi.
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